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Posted by
on
June 13, 2013
A survey of housing finance in other countries sheds light on the distortion that government subsidies for housing can cause in national economies. Professors at New York University’s Stern School of Business have pointed out that one thing that Spain and the United States have in common is a “massive misallocation of their economy’s resources to construction. The oversupply is contributing to the substantial unemployment rate in Spain and the U.S.”
They further point out that the government’s programs to subsidize housing—which includes support through the GSEs—come with a significant price:
And the distortion is substantial: “Careful research has found that all of the incentives for more house has led to a housing stock that is 30 percent larger than would be the case if all of the incentives were absent, and that U.S. GDP is 10 percent smaller than it could be.” The international context offers a further cautionary lesson on the hazards of subsidizing housing and relying on residential construction as a source of national economic growth. The financial journalist Felix Salmon has contrasted the divergent paths that the Spanish and German economies have taken in recent years, and he traces that divergence to a difference in government housing policy:
The lesson that he draws from this contrast is that “the U.S., going forwards, needs to be less like Spain and more like Germany. So let’s not subsidize housing. That way lies fiscal disaster.”
Posted by
on
June 13, 2013
Contrary to the Fannie & Freddie defenders’ assertions that America’s unique GSE-model of housing finance is the “envy of the world,” yesterday’s full committee hearing found that the U.S. ranks only 17th in the world in terms of the rate of homeownership. Our 65% homeownership rate puts us behind Australia, Ireland, Spain, and the United Kingdom, all of which provide far less government support for home ownership than does the United States. Here’s what they’re saying: POLITICO: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac move up on Congress’s to-do list
HousingWire: Academics push for return to GSE-free mortgage finance
Mortgage News Daily: Housing Finance Should Take Cues From Other Countries
Fiscal Times: Are Fixed-Rate Government-Backed Mortgages Over?
Credit Union Times: Committee Considers Overseas Secondary Mortgage Market Solutions
Perhaps America’s exception to the norm in housing finance isn’t so exceptional.
Posted by
on
June 11, 2013
Proponents of the GSE model of housing finance often assert that the costs of that model are justified because it provides benefits that no other countries enjoy. In fact, before the collapse of the GSEs in 2008, their supporters often argued that “American housing finance is the envy of the world.” But the reality is that for all of the resources and subsidies that the GSEs directed (we would say “mis-directed”) towards housing finance, compared to the rest of the world, the U.S. ranks in the middle of the pack on any number of criteria.
Home Ownership
GSE proponents often argue that the GSE model has given the U.S. higher rates of home ownership than other countries that do not use the GSE model for housing finance. But the reality is that even though the U.S. has a relatively high rate of home ownership, it is not among the highest major developed countries. The U.S. home ownership rate is 65 percent, and it rates 17th in the world, after Australia, Ireland, Spain, and the United Kingdom, all of which provide far less government support for home ownership than does the United States.
Professors at the New York University’s Stern School of Business have concluded that:
Professor Dwight M. Jaffee, the Willis Booth Professor of Banking, Finance, and Real Estate at the Haas School of Business, University of California at Berkeley has compared the rates of homeownership in the U.S. to those in 15 European countries. He found that the U.S. homeownership rate—now down to 65 percent—is actually below the average rate of these 15 countries. Home ownership rates in seven European countries exceed those in the U.S. As Professor Jaffee notes, none of these European countries has any institution comparable to the GSEs. He concludes that the GSEs’ contribution to expanding homeownership rates in the U.S. has been negligible: the homeownership rate in the U.S. is 65 percent, one point higher than it was in 1990.
Mortgage Rates
GSE proponents also argue that the GSE model makes housing more affordable by lowering interest rates for borrowers. If that were true, U.S. homeowners would be borrowing at lower rates than would homeowners in other countries. Yet from 1998 to 2009, the U.S. had the sixth highest average mortgage interest rate when ranked against 15 countries in Western Europe, and mortgage interest rates in the U.S. were 22 basis points higher than the average for Western Europe. The higher rates that U.S. borrowers paid for mortgages suggests that despite the GSEs’ dominance in the U.S. housing finance system, they failed to lower mortgage rates.
Mortgage Defaults As Professor Michael Lea, Director of The Corky McMillin Center for Real Estate at San Diego State University, explains, “the housing finance systems in almost all countries performed better during the crisis than the system in the United States.” Housing prices fell more in the United States than they did in other countries, and the United States has seen more mortgage defaults than other countries.
Professor Jaffee also looked at the volatility of housing starts and home prices. He found that on these measures, European housing and mortgage markets have significantly outperformed U.S. markets. The U.S. volatility of both housing starts and home prices has exceeded the values for most Western European countries, with the U.S. ranking third out of 16 in construction volatility and fifth out of 16 in house price volatility.
Posted by
on
June 10, 2013
On Wednesday the House will consider H.R. 1256, the Swap Jurisdiction Certainty Act. Swaps are uniquely tailored financial products traded globally (cross-border) by a variety of industries to manage risk. Under the Dodd-Frank Act, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are responsible for regulating swaps trades in which a U.S. person is a party to the transaction. But while Dodd-Frank’s plain language makes clear that Congress intended new swaps regulations to apply outside the U.S. only in certain limited circumstances, the comments and actions of U.S. regulators – particularly the CFTC – indicate they are considering regulations that would result in new swaps rules being applied more broadly than Congress intended. The Consequence: Action by the CTFC or SEC to unilaterally enforce uncoordinated regulations on cross-border swaps would put U.S.-based companies at a needless disadvantage to their international competitors. The Solution: H.R. 1256 calls for the SEC and the CFTC to work together and harmonize their rules relating to swaps transacted between those in the U.S. and those abroad while ensuring regulators employ a thorough and deliberate process in determining when to apply U.S. swaps rules in foreign markets and to foreign firms.
Posted by
on
June 10, 2013
We’ll hold four hearings -- including full committee action on sustainable housing finance reform -- this week in addition to our three (and a half) bills on the House Floor. Be sure to check back here on the Bottom Line Blog -- and subscribe to our email lists -- for updates throughout the week. Here’s what’s happening: We’re told on Tuesday the Rules Committee will meet at 5 p.m. to consider a rule for H.R. 1256, the Swap Jurisdiction Certainty Act. On Wednesday at 10 a.m. the full committee meets to examine examples of successful housing finance models without explicit government guarantees as part of our ongoing effort to build a sustainable housing finance system. After one-minute speeches on the House Floor at approximately 12:30 p.m., H.R. 634, the Business Risk Mitigation and Price Stabilization Act of 2013 and H.R. 2167, the Reverse Mortgage Stabilization Act of 2013 will be considered under suspension of the rules. The Agriculture Committee will then call up H.R. 742, the Swap Data Repository and Clearing House Indemnification Correct Act of 2013, on which we share jurisdiction. At 2 p.m. the Capital Markets & GSEs Subcommittee will begin their look at reducing barriers to capital formation before recessing around 3 p.m. for House Floor consideration of H.R. 1256, the Swap Jurisdiction Certainty Act. After debate on H.R. 1256 has concluded, the subcommittee hearing will resume. We’ll round out the week on Thursday with two additional subcommittee hearings. At 10 a.m. the Monetary Policy & Trade Subcommittee will assess reforms at the Export-Import Bank and at 1 p.m. the Housing & Insurance Subcommittee will examine the impact of international regulatory standards on the competitiveness of U.S. insurers.
Posted by
on
June 09, 2013
Wall Street Journal: The Hidden Jobless Disaster At the present slow pace of job growth, it will require more than a decade to get back to full employment defined by pre-recession standards. Bloomberg: Can the Fed Make Up Its Mind on QE? When the Federal Reserve first introduced its either/or stance on quantitative easing, I wasn’t sure if it was a PR ploy or a serious plan. Heritage: Will FHA Require the Next Round of Housing Bailouts from the Taxpayer? The FHA has deviated from its mission of providing support to low- and moderate income and first-time homebuyers with sound underwriting standards. The FHA should eliminate its current practice of supporting homeownership among high-income individuals and setting lending standards that undermine sustainable homeownership for creditworthy low- and moderate-income and first-time homebuyers. Automotive News: Auto lending: Regulator must be reined in Congress must rein in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which has overstepped its mandate by squeezing banks and finance companies to limit dealership profits, apparently based on questionable assumptions of widespread discrimination in auto lending. Birmingham News: Savers have nowhere to run, nowhere to hide For four-and-a-half years now, the Federal Reserve, under Ben Bernanke’s guidance, has embraced a “near zero” interest rate policy and they intend to keep interest rates near zero through the end of 2014 and maybe longer. Fed officials have embarked on three “quantitative easing” programs, the third of which – QE3 – pours $85 billion per month into the economy to prop up the mortgage market. New York Times: Behind the Rise of House Prices, Wall Street Buyers The last time the housing market was this hot in Phoenix and Las Vegas, the buyers pushing up prices were mostly small time. Nowawdays, they are big time – Wall Street big. Large investment firms have spent billions of dollars over the last year buying homes in some of the nation’s most depressed markets. The influx has been so great, and the resulting price gains so big, that ordinary buyers are feeling squeezed out. Forbes: 'Greedy Speculators' Don't Cause Inflation, But Greedy Princes Do It is a basic fact of economics that price inflation is caused by excess monetary expansion. It is a fact in the same sense that the idea that the earth revolves around the sun is a fact, in that it is simply the only way to explain the data without reverting to massive distortions in order to save appearances. Los Angeles Times: UCLA Anderson Forecast paints dismal picture of economic recovery The country’s tepid growth in its gross domestic product isn’t creating enough good jobs to build a strong middle class, according to a UCLA report released Wednesday. “It’s not a recovery. It’s not even normal growth. It’s bad,” UCLA economist Edward Leamer says.
Posted by
on
June 04, 2013
Yesterday the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) put hardworking taxpayers at greater risk of being forced to fund yet another Wall Street bailout.
Under their Dodd-Frank authority, the FSOC took preliminary steps to designate several non-bank financial institutions, including AIG, Prudential Financial and GE Capital, as “systemically important financial institutions” (SIFIs). That’s regulator speak for “too big to fail” (TBTF). Designating any company as ‘too big to fail’ is bad policy and even worse economics. So while Dodd-Frank supporters see these designations as progress and AIG’s Bob Benmosche sees them as success, we see Dodd-Frank’s self-fulfilling prophecy giving these firms market advantages over their competitors and helping to make them even bigger and riskier than they otherwise would be. Here’s what they’re saying: Bloomberg: AIG, Prudential Named Systemically Important by Panel
CNBC/Reuters: Regulators Propose Scrutiny of AIG, Prudential, GE Capital
USA Today: Regulators pick non-bank firms for more oversight
AP: U.S. proposes labeling some nonbanks as financial threats
The Hill: Financial firms face new clampdown Huffington Post: 'Systemically Important Financial Institutions' Named By U.S. Regulator In Crackdown
Posted by
on
June 03, 2013
On Wednesday the Capital Markets & GSEs Subcommittee will hold our only scheduled hearing for the week examining the market power and impact of proxy advisory firms. But don’t get too comfortable. Next week we’ve scheduled four hearings, including a full committee hearing on alternative housing finance models as part of our effort to forge a sustainable housing finance system. As always, be sure to check back here on the Bottom Line Blog -- and subscribe to our email lists -- for updates throughout the week.
Posted by
on
May 26, 2013
Phil Gramm and Steve McMillin: The Debt Problem Hasn’t Vanished George Will: Appeals court limits labor board’s lawlessness Early in an opinion issued recently by a unanimous three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Judge A. Raymond Randolph said: “Although the parties have not raised it, one issue needs to be resolved before we turn to the merits of the case.” The issue he raised but could not resolve — that is up to the Supreme Court — illuminates the Obama administration’s George Wallace-like lawlessness. It also demonstrates the judiciary’s duty to restrain presidents who forget the oath they swear to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.” Quartz: Five words from Bernanke have Wall Street running scared It was too good to last forever. For most of 2013, the effortless stride of the US stock market has coaxed more and more investors—both retail and pros—into stocks. Before yesterday’s stumble, US stocks were up about 17% year-to-date, making them one of the best-performing asset classes in the world. And then Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke had to go and upset the apple cart by uttering five little words: “In the next few meetings.” Time: The Next Real Estate Bubble Has Already Begun (But It’s Not What You Think) The American public is, for obvious reasons, a bit gun-shy when it comes to asset bubbles. Ever since the financial crisis, market watchers have worried about bubbles in the stock market, in high yield debt, and even the reinflation of the real estate bubble. The latest asset class to receive worried attention from policy makers? Farmland. CNBC: Wagging the Dog: Why the Fed Fears Wall Street The stock market has long been the mistress in the marriage between the Federal Reserve and the economy...The mere mention from Chairman Bernanke that the Fed was contemplating an exit from its monthly asset purchases sent global markets into a tizzy. Peters Schiff: The Biggest Loser Win While the world's economies jockey one another for the lead in the currency devaluation derby, it's worth considering the value of the prize they are seeking. They believe a weak currency opens the door to trade dominance, by allowing manufacturers to undercut foreign rivals, and to economic growth, by fighting deflation. On the other side of the coin, they believe a strong currency is an economic albatross that leads to stagnation. But the demonstrable effects of currency strength and weakness reveal the emptiness of their theory.
Posted by
on
May 23, 2013
During the first term of the Obama administration, our nation racked up four straight years of trillion dollar-plus deficits and as much debt as was accumulated in our first 200 years. Under President Obama, our national debt has increased by more than $6 trillion – the largest increase under any president in history.
But according to President Obama's Treasury Secretary, Jack Lew, it’s time to pop open the champagne and celebrate because “we are overachieving on deficit reduction right now". That’s funny, because it wasn’t that long ago when a $642 billion budget deficit and a $17 trillion national debt was a bad thing. Watch Secretary Lew's take on this year's deficit in an exchange with Congressman Marlin Stutzman during yesterday's hearing below: So what does “overachieving” look like to the Obama administration? Just this month, the Congressional Budget Office updated its budget outlook (.pdf) with the following deficit and debt estimates:
In his testimony (.pdf) earlier this year to the House Budget Committee, CBO Director Doug Elmendorf said:
As Secretary Lew himself pointed out in his exchange with Congressman Stutzman, “the path we are on is what is most significant.” We agree, Mr. Secretary. But here's the path (.pdf) we are on. If the Obama administration wants to give themselves high-fives and hand out gold stars for “overachieving” with a deficit that is $642 billion – the fifth biggest deficit in history – and headed higher because of their spending policies, then be our guest. It just shows how out of touch they are with hardworking taxpayers who understand that unless we change course Washington’s reckless spending will leave their children and grandchildren with fewer opportunities, a lower standard of living and less freedom. |